Legal template for conditional gift deed as an alternative to wagers on AI doom

I have donated $5,000 to a charity of Greg Colbourn’s choice (in this case, PauseAI US).

Separately, Greg has promised to give me (or donate to a charity of my choice) $3,125 in July 2026 and $4,375 in January 2028 ($7500 total, inflation adjusted), conditional on the world population of biological humans being above 1 billion people at each of those points in time.

One motivating factor for making this post is that sharing a legal template might allow more people to make similar arrangements, if it suits them, since a bottleneck for uptake of something like this seems to be legal enforceability (though obviously this isn't at all a guarantee - this is closer to the most easily accessible option for me rather than optimised for legal enforceability). This isn’t the exact wording used in our agreement, but should be a reasonable template that people are free to use and improve on.^[1] 

My understanding is that Greg’s preferences for similar agreements are in the 10k-250k range, while preferring longer timelines (e.g. ~5 years/2030), and preferably with non-EA donors or donors that counterfactually wouldn’t donate to PauseAI US / PauseAI / other EA causes, but there may be others who would take Greg’s views (e.g. because they see this as a de facto financing method with high expected value given their views on near-term AI risk). Something like S&P 500 share equivalents is also an option worth considering instead of cash / donations, though I don’t know how this might impact legal enforceability.

The implied odds are less favourable than Vasco’s bet for non-timeline reasons on Greg's end, but still higher than my personal best guess.

Template here. 

Acknowledgements

Thanks to @Greg_Colbourn ⏸️ for this arrangement, @Tyrone-Jay Barugh for the legal template, and @Holly Elmore ⏸️ 🔸 for conversations around PauseAI US.

1. ^{^}

   Not a lawyer / this isn't legal advice, etc.