There is a narrative about the FTX collapse that I have noticed emerging as a commonly-held belief, despite little concrete evidence for or against it. The belief goes something like this:
- Sam Bankman Fried did what he did primarily for the sake of "Effective Altruism," as he understood it. Even though from a purely utilitarian perspective his actions were negative in expectation, he justified the fraud to himself because it was "for the greater good." As such, poor messaging on our part may be partially at fault for his downfall.
This take may be more or less plausible, but it is also unsubstantiated. As Astrid Wilde noted on Twitter, there is a distinct possibility that the causality of the situation may have run the other way, with SBF as a conman taking advantage of the EA community's high-trust environment to boost himself. Alternatively (or additionally), it also seems quite plausible to me that the downfall of FTX had something to do with the social dynamics of the company, much as Enron's downfall can be traced back to [insert your favorite theory for why Enron collapsed here]. We do not, and to some degree cannot, know what SBF's internal monologue has been, and if we are to update our actions responsibly in order to avoid future mistakes of this magnitude (which we absolutely should do), we must deal with the facts as they most likely are, not as we would like or fear them to be.
All of this said, I strongly suspect that in ten years from now, conventional wisdom will hold the above belief as being basically cannon, regardless of further evidence in either direction. This is because it presents an intrinsically interesting, almost Hollywood villain-esque narrative, one that will surely evoke endless "hot takes" which journalists, bloggers, etc. will have a hard time passing over. Expect this to become the default understanding of what happened (from outsiders at least), and prepare accordingly. At the same time, be cautious when updating your internal beliefs so as not to assume automatically that this story must be the truth of the matter. We need to carefully examine where our focus in self-improvement should lie moving forward, and it may not be the case that a revamping of our internal messaging is necessary (though it may very well be in the end; I certainly do not feel qualified to make that final call, only to point out what I recognize from experience as a temptingly powerful story beat which may influence it).
What makes this implausible for me is that SBF has been involved in EA since very early one (~2013 or earlier?). Back then, there was no money, power or fame to speak of, so why join this fringe movement?
To be clear, I think there were multiple causal factors, and believing in EA probably explained a lot less variance than SBF's idiosyncratic character traits (e.g., plausibly dark triad traits, especially narcissism and Machiavellianism which entail immense lust for power and fame, disregard of common-sense morality such as not lying, etc.). I mean, there are like 10,000 EAs and I don't know of anyone who has committed a serious crime because of EA.
A hypothetical human with the same personality traits as SBF but who doesn't believe in EA, plausibly would have done pretty shady things as well. Unfortunately, it is possible that EA motivated SBF to amass even more power and money than otherwise. Also, EA provided SBF with a network of highly competent, motivated and trusting people.
I think conceiving of SBF as someone who totally did not believe in EA principles and did everything just for money and power is simplistic and false.
We will obviously never know the precise contents of SBF's internal monologue. But it is conceivable that he thought he is doing everything only because of EA. Everyone is the hero of their own story.
But you cannot blindly trust your internal monologue. SBFs actions were probably shaped to a large extent by subconscious motivations. My best guess is that SBF might have been somewhat aware that he has ulterior motives but that he thought this is okay and that he is it all under control ("no one is perfect" "I'll use my desires for power as additional motivational fuel", etc.). Though it's also possible that he thought of himself as practically a saint.
In my experience a disproportionate numbers of EAs have dark triad traits, which is not surprising given that a disproportionate number of EAs are mainly in touch with their heads.
Also wasn’t SBF’s plan to become a maths professor, and he changed his mind because of ETG arguments?