Note: the visualization of previews is sometimes a bit wonky for me: it is shown over the link text which makes it hard to see what I was hovering over or quickly hover over adjacent links as in the beginning of this post. Also the box is slightly too small, showing an awkward scroll bar.
This lets you bet on yes/no questions without leaving EA forum! You do need to be logged into Manifold, otherwise when you try to bet it will first bring you to a screen to log in via your google account.
How to embed a market
Just go the market (or create one), copy the link, and paste it in the editor. It will automatically turn into an embed like the one above.
Headline finding: I audited 17 AI Safety Talent programmes. Zero of 17 have published any comparison group, rejected-applicant follow-up, matched control or randomisation. Not one. Every programme that mentions a counterfactual does it by asking participants to self-report.
Background
At least $70 million...
In celebration of still being alive and fighting, we are giving away 1,000 Amazon e-books of “If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies”. Feel free to send a copy to yourself, a loved one, or a friend—we need all hands on deck.
Today marks exactly one year since If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies: Why Superhuman AI Would Kill Us All, by Eliezer Yudkowsky and Nate Soare...
A year ago I posted that YCombinator (YC) companies didn’t seem to be growing faster since the release of ChatGPT in 2022. I reran that experiment and found that 2023+ YC companies are arguably growing a bit faster than pre-2023 companies (including AfterQuery, ...
love this, thanks for your work