Edit: To clarify, when I say "accept Pascal's Wager" I mean accepting the idea that way to do the most (expected) good is to prevent as many people as possible from going to hell, and cause as many as possible to go to heaven, regardless of how likely it is that heaven/hell exists (as long as it's non-zero).
I am a utilitarian and I struggle to see why I shouldn't accept Pascal's Wager. I'm honestly surprised there isn't much discussion about it in this community considering it theoretically presents the most effective way to be altruistic.
I have heard the argument that there could be a god that reverses the positions of heaven and hell and therefore the probabilities cancel out, but this doesn't convince me. It seems quite clear that the probability of a god that matches the god of existing religions is far more likely than a god that is the opposite, therefore they don't cancel out because the expected utilities aren't equal.
I've also heard the argument that we should reject all infinite utilities – for now it seems to me that Pascal's Wager is the only example where the probabilities don't cancel out, so I don't have any paradoxes or inconsistencies, but this is probably quite a fragile position that could be changed. I also don't know how to go about rejecting infinite utilities if it turns out I have to.
I would obviously love to hear any other arguments.
Thanks!
Very intersting question, though I wouldn't mind if you clarified it. What exactly do you mean by accepting Pascal's wager? Practicing any major religion until you start beleiving in it?
Perhaps more to the point: Pascal’s wager assumes "that God would not grant eternal life to a non-believer and that sincerity in one’s belief in God is not a requirement for salvation." which may not be obviously true to many EAers and religious adherents.
Oh in that case, I havent seen any good reasons not to take hell and heaven seriously (e.g. at least try to find out for sure if theyre fiction or not) from effective altrusits or others, but please let me know if you come across any.
I've been mulling over what this would entail, and plan on sharing my ideas on the EA forum in the next few days (update: I posted that here: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/twaKWNjAc4KEz3kMq/investigating-ideology-want-to-earn-money-help-ea-and-or-me ).
I'd love to hear your thoughts on it. Thanks for asking this really cool question.