Edit: To clarify, when I say "accept Pascal's Wager" I mean accepting the idea that way to do the most (expected) good is to prevent as many people as possible from going to hell, and cause as many as possible to go to heaven, regardless of how likely it is that heaven/hell exists (as long as it's non-zero).
I am a utilitarian and I struggle to see why I shouldn't accept Pascal's Wager. I'm honestly surprised there isn't much discussion about it in this community considering it theoretically presents the most effective way to be altruistic.
I have heard the argument that there could be a god that reverses the positions of heaven and hell and therefore the probabilities cancel out, but this doesn't convince me. It seems quite clear that the probability of a god that matches the god of existing religions is far more likely than a god that is the opposite, therefore they don't cancel out because the expected utilities aren't equal.
I've also heard the argument that we should reject all infinite utilities – for now it seems to me that Pascal's Wager is the only example where the probabilities don't cancel out, so I don't have any paradoxes or inconsistencies, but this is probably quite a fragile position that could be changed. I also don't know how to go about rejecting infinite utilities if it turns out I have to.
I would obviously love to hear any other arguments.
Thanks!
I included the wager below for reference since it doesn't seem to be in the original question.
I think one problem is that belief in the existence of God is probably not sufficient for an infinite payoff (and it's not 100% clear to everyone what is sufficient). My understanding is that most major religions are meant to teach something more complex than that. Usually something to do with helping others and attaining peace by letting go of selfish desires in favor of loving and kind ones.
But honestly, I think the reason people reject the wager is because they don't like it. Maybe because infinity is already incomprehensible and uncertainty around infinities just makes it even more difficult to deal with. We generally like certainty or at least ways to be somewhat certain about how uncertain we are and how to become more certain.
So, it's often easier to just avoid something that doesn't clearly guarantee a payoff. And switching to either for or against God existing doesn't seem like it has a clear payoff for most people. Like many things, you can just forget about the question and then it won't seem to have much impact on your life. Same way most of the time most people just forget about the meaning of life or the possibility of nuclear war and other complex topics that seem to not have clear solutions to most people.
Pascal’s Wager (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)
The argument:
"Either God exists or God does not exist, and you can either wager for God or wager against God. The utilities of the relevant possible outcomes are as follows, where f1, f2, and f3 are numbers whose values are not specified beyond the requirement that they be finite: