Edit: To clarify, when I say "accept Pascal's Wager" I mean accepting the idea that way to do the most (expected) good is to prevent as many people as possible from going to hell, and cause as many as possible to go to heaven, regardless of how likely it is that heaven/hell exists (as long as it's non-zero).
I am a utilitarian and I struggle to see why I shouldn't accept Pascal's Wager. I'm honestly surprised there isn't much discussion about it in this community considering it theoretically presents the most effective way to be altruistic.
I have heard the argument that there could be a god that reverses the positions of heaven and hell and therefore the probabilities cancel out, but this doesn't convince me. It seems quite clear that the probability of a god that matches the god of existing religions is far more likely than a god that is the opposite, therefore they don't cancel out because the expected utilities aren't equal.
I've also heard the argument that we should reject all infinite utilities – for now it seems to me that Pascal's Wager is the only example where the probabilities don't cancel out, so I don't have any paradoxes or inconsistencies, but this is probably quite a fragile position that could be changed. I also don't know how to go about rejecting infinite utilities if it turns out I have to.
I would obviously love to hear any other arguments.
Thanks!
I also disagree with all the answers that I've read but I have thought of one that works for me and hope it'll work for you too: I think there's a lot more probabilities of achieving infinite value in this universe, for me and/or for future people, making progress in this civilization ignoring religions, than the probabilities of achieving it following them + the probabilities of any other complex imaginary world after dead.
Now, this doesn't seem to work for Pascal's Mugging, so I hope to find another answer to that or to not get poor because of it lol.
Great point! Especially considering I'm already a believer in the multiverse, it's not necessarily less likely that we'll develop some method of creating infinite utilities than it is that heaven or hell exists.
I'll definitely consider this, so thanks for commenting!