Edit: To clarify, when I say "accept Pascal's Wager" I mean accepting the idea that way to do the most (expected) good is to prevent as many people as possible from going to hell, and cause as many as possible to go to heaven, regardless of how likely it is that heaven/hell exists (as long as it's non-zero).
I am a utilitarian and I struggle to see why I shouldn't accept Pascal's Wager. I'm honestly surprised there isn't much discussion about it in this community considering it theoretically presents the most effective way to be altruistic.
I have heard the argument that there could be a god that reverses the positions of heaven and hell and therefore the probabilities cancel out, but this doesn't convince me. It seems quite clear that the probability of a god that matches the god of existing religions is far more likely than a god that is the opposite, therefore they don't cancel out because the expected utilities aren't equal.
I've also heard the argument that we should reject all infinite utilities – for now it seems to me that Pascal's Wager is the only example where the probabilities don't cancel out, so I don't have any paradoxes or inconsistencies, but this is probably quite a fragile position that could be changed. I also don't know how to go about rejecting infinite utilities if it turns out I have to.
I would obviously love to hear any other arguments.
Thanks!
There are many good critiques of the details of Pascal's wager. For example:
but I have looked and not found any good reason to dismiss what I think is the heart of the argument: that we should take the possiblity of going to Hell or Heaven super seriously, more than any Earthly matter.
Pascal's wager offers little insight on what to do with this information, but I think a good next step is trying to find out for sure if Heaven and Hell are fiction or not or if any/which religion proclaiming them is plausible.
P.S. Please correct me if I'm wrong about anything here or if I missed anything important.
P.S.S. My main sources here are https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/pascal-wager/#Prem1DeciMatr & https://www.iep.utm.edu/pasc-wag/ both accessed April 2020. For example the former says about [1]:
"Pascal maintains that we are incapable of knowing whether God exists or not, yet we must 'wager' one way or the other. Reason cannot settle which way we should incline"
P.S.S.S. Thanks for sharing this really interesting, and I think neglected, question.