Edit: To clarify, when I say "accept Pascal's Wager" I mean accepting the idea that way to do the most (expected) good is to prevent as many people as possible from going to hell, and cause as many as possible to go to heaven, regardless of how likely it is that heaven/hell exists (as long as it's non-zero).
I am a utilitarian and I struggle to see why I shouldn't accept Pascal's Wager. I'm honestly surprised there isn't much discussion about it in this community considering it theoretically presents the most effective way to be altruistic.
I have heard the argument that there could be a god that reverses the positions of heaven and hell and therefore the probabilities cancel out, but this doesn't convince me. It seems quite clear that the probability of a god that matches the god of existing religions is far more likely than a god that is the opposite, therefore they don't cancel out because the expected utilities aren't equal.
I've also heard the argument that we should reject all infinite utilities – for now it seems to me that Pascal's Wager is the only example where the probabilities don't cancel out, so I don't have any paradoxes or inconsistencies, but this is probably quite a fragile position that could be changed. I also don't know how to go about rejecting infinite utilities if it turns out I have to.
I would obviously love to hear any other arguments.
Thanks!
My perspective on the issue is that by accepting the wager, you are likely to become far less effective at achieving your terminal goals, (since even if you can discount higher-probability wagers, there will eventually be a lower-probability one that you won’t be able to think your way out of and thus have to entertain on principle), and become vulnerable to adversarial attacks, leading to actions which in the vast majority of possible universes are losing moves. If your epistemics require that you spend all your money on projects that will, for all intents and purposes do nothing (and which if universally followed would lead to a clearly dystopian world where only muggers get money), then I’d wager that the epistemics are the problem. Rationalists, and EAs, should play to win, and not fall prey to obvious basilisks of our own making.
This is a good point, although I would argue that the reasons why practicing religion has these advantages is unrelated to it being a case of Pascal's wager (if we let Pascal's wager stand for promises of infinite value in general).