Today, Forethought and I are releasing an essay series called Better Futures, here.[1] It’s been something like eight years in the making, so I’m pretty happy it’s finally out! It asks: when looking to the future, should we focus on surviving, or on flourishing?
In practice at least, future-oriented altruists tend to focus on ensuring we survive (or are not permanently disempowered by some valueless AIs). But maybe we should focus on future flourishing, instead.
Why?
Well, even if we survive, we probably just get a future that’s a small fraction as good as it could have been. We could, instead, try to help guide society to be on track to a truly wonderful future.
That is, I think there’s more at stake when it comes to flourishing than when it comes to survival. So maybe that should be our main focus.
The whole essay series is out today. But I’ll post summaries of each essay over the course of the next couple of weeks. And the first episode of Forethought’s video podcast is on the topic, and out now, too.
The first essay is Introducing Better Futures: along with the supplement, it gives the basic case for focusing on trying to make the future wonderful, rather than just ensuring we get any ok future at all. It’s based on a simple two-factor model: that the value of the future is the product of our chance of “Surviving” and of the value of the future, if we do Survive, i.e. our “Flourishing”.
(“not-Surviving”, here, means anything that locks us into a near-0 value future in the near-term: extinction from a bio-catastrophe counts but if valueless superintelligence disempowers us without causing human extinction, that counts, too. I think this is how “existential catastrophe” is often used in practice.)
The key thought is: maybe we’re closer to the “ceiling” on Survival than we are to the “ceiling” of Flourishing.
Most people (though not everyone) thinks we’re much more likely than not to Survive this century. Metaculus puts *extinction* risk at about 4
I agree that this should be its own field! I've noticed that I will often conflate the two for ease of speaking/writing. I feel similarly when I need to refer to folks that are not men and instead of saying women/nonbinary/trans, I will just say "women" for short. I don't like that I do this and have reflected on it extensively. I think it is because my brain is wired to prioritize getting my original thought out there instead of being sensitive to the nuances of a group's identity and structure. However, there is a lot that can be done to make the distinction more automatic and less cognitively demanding through setting/reinforcing social norms and environmental structure.
I think having a "global development" button and category on the EA forum would be a low effort way to kick it off as a social norm and make it easier for people to start separating the two in their minds.
I think it's also a much more tractable switch than with gender since often when we refer to social groups, we usually want to be more inclusive. In EA NYC, we have a subgroup meeting for Women and Nonbinaries of EA NYC which we just have to abbreviate as "WANBEANY" and even that is not optimally inclusive because what if a trans man wants to join or what if a trans femme person doesn't want to identify as either woman or nonbinary?
In the case of global health and global development, it would be good to talk about the two more independently since they have very different approaches to the same problem.