Edit: To clarify, when I say "accept Pascal's Wager" I mean accepting the idea that way to do the most (expected) good is to prevent as many people as possible from going to hell, and cause as many as possible to go to heaven, regardless of how likely it is that heaven/hell exists (as long as it's non-zero).
I am a utilitarian and I struggle to see why I shouldn't accept Pascal's Wager. I'm honestly surprised there isn't much discussion about it in this community considering it theoretically presents the most effective way to be altruistic.
I have heard the argument that there could be a god that reverses the positions of heaven and hell and therefore the probabilities cancel out, but this doesn't convince me. It seems quite clear that the probability of a god that matches the god of existing religions is far more likely than a god that is the opposite, therefore they don't cancel out because the expected utilities aren't equal.
I've also heard the argument that we should reject all infinite utilities – for now it seems to me that Pascal's Wager is the only example where the probabilities don't cancel out, so I don't have any paradoxes or inconsistencies, but this is probably quite a fragile position that could be changed. I also don't know how to go about rejecting infinite utilities if it turns out I have to.
I would obviously love to hear any other arguments.
Thanks!
"My view makes perfect sense, contemporary culture is crazy, and history will bear me out when my perspective becomes a durable new form of common sense" is a statement that, while it scans as arrogant, could easily be true - and has been many times in the past. It at least explains why a person who ascribes to "social intelligence" as a guide might still hold many counterintuitive opinions. I agree with you though that it's not useful for settling disputes when people disagree in their predictions about "universal common sense."
If you believe that current and past common sense is a better guide, then doesn't that work against Pascal's Wager? I mean, how many people now, or in the past, would agree with you that Pascal's Wager is a good idea? I think it has stuck around in part because it's so counterintuitive. We don't exactly see a ton of deathbed conversions, much less for game-theoretic reasons.