Just a quick update on predicted timelines. Obviously, there’s no guarantee that Metaculus is 100% reliable + you should look at other sources as well, but I find this concerning.
Weak AGI is now predicted in a little over two years:
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/date-weakly-general-ai-is-publicly-known/
AGI predicted in about 10: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/
Also, these are predicted dates until these systems publicly known, not the date until they exist. Things are getting crazy.
Even though Eliezer claims that there was no fire alarm for AGI, perhaps this is the fire alarm?
I think, in hindsight, the Fire Alarm first started ringing in a DeepMind building in 2017. Or perhaps an OpenAI building in 2020. It's certainly going off all over Microsoft now. It's also going off in many other places. To some of us it is already deafening. A huge, ominous, distraction from our daily lives. I really want to do something to shut the damn thing off.